Analysis: I think this is actually the reason...
Steve Hallstrom
Special to The Farmer
As I write this, the federal government shutdown is officially turning one week old.
There is gridlock in D.C., I know - shocker right?
The problem could be averted right now if Democrats would agree to extend current federal spending/commitments for another six weeks.
Keep the status quo intact for a while longer? Should be a no-brainer right?
The reason most often given (and strangely enough, even big media admits the Dems are the sticks in the mud here) is that they want to re-establish Medicaid benefits for illegals.
Strange hill to die on, since most Americans don’t want their tax money paying for things like this, so why be willing to risk political points so close to the 2026 midterm cycle?
I have a theory.
The enhanced premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA - those tax credits keeping health insurance affordable for millions - are slated to expire at the end of 2025. Without new legislation, these supports vanish for the 2026 plan year, potentially spiking premiums. As the government shutdown that began Oct. 1, 2025, grinds on, I believe Democrats are digging in their heels, willing to keep the government shuttered until they secure guarantees that these subsidies will be extended.
So let’s unpack who these subsidies help, what’s at risk, and why this matters, with a look back at the last shutdown under President Trump for context.
These enhanced premium tax credits, launched in the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act and extended through 2025 by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, have no doubt been a financial boost for about 22 million Americans on ACA Marketplace plans. They cap out-of-pocket premium costs at 0-8.5 percent of household income, regardless of earnings, and eliminate the “subsidy cliff” that cuts off aid for those earning above 400 percent of the federal poverty level ($62,000 for an individual or $128,000 for a family of four in 2025, according to the Department of Health and Human Services).
These subsidies primarily support low- and middle-income households, self-employed folks, gig workers, small business employees, early retirees, and rural residents like those in North Dakota and western Minnesota. KFF data shows 90 percent of Marketplace enrollees receive subsidies, with most being adults aged 26-64 earning 100-400 percent of the poverty line ($15,060-$62,000 for an individual). This includes our oilfield workers with fluctuating pay, farmers battling tight margins, and service industry folks in Watford City.
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